UK, February 8, 2010 (Pal Telegraph) -This year saw an Israeli-US joint exercise "Juniper Cobra 10" take place off the coast of Israel which involved the IDF and the US Navy 6th Fleet. The purpose of the exercise was to participate in countering simulated attacks by ballistic, medium-range and short-range missiles and rockets by Iran on Israel.
As part of this build up the US Military has more than doubled its stockpile of weapons in Israel which it states "Israel can use." One would assume that just like the preparation in the build up to the Lebanon Crisis in 2006 and pre Cast Lead in 2008 that this is a very clear indication that both the US and Israel are preparing for a strike on the nuclear facilities in Iran. The US Navy already has a significant naval force in the Gulf and we are now seeing the slow deployment of Israeli Naval Vessels into the region. In order for the Israeli Navy to position to such a location it requires the permission of the Gulf States to enter their waters. One cannot fully understand how these Islamic States could allow Israeli vessels to transit their zone with the intention of carrying out an attack on another Islamic country (Iran). Nothing surprises me anymore when we saw those same states turn their back on Gaza and Palestine.
What I find amazing is that the UN and the world looks on without saying a word knowing that this action will probably take place as soon as the Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) is ready for operational use. The Pentagon has been applying extreme pressure on Boeing to bring forward the development and testing of this massive bomb by June 2010 almost two years ahead of intended operations. It may also be the US intention to make use of the Massive Ordnance Air Blast (MOAB) which was intended for use in Iraq and Afghanistan.
It is my understand that this is not just a simple action, to take out nuclear facilities, but rather an extremely dangerous situation that could not only lead to a major action or war but also cause catastrophic radiation contamination of the entire Middle East and the World. I will cover the environmental aspect in Part 2 followed by the Part 3 which will cover the economic damage that such action would cause to the UK and EU economies.
Militarily speaking this possible strike can erupt into a full scale war based on the proviso that if Israel and the US attack Iran that would be considered an act of war resulting in retaliatory action by the Iranian on Israeli and US targets. Make no bones about it Iran has a significant high tech military that can cause much damage on the invaders and once that step has been taken the US would then carry out further attacks resulting in War. My guess would be this is what the US, UK and NATO countries really want, which is a regime change......heard that before in Iraq and Afghanistan?
With the new NATO ground rules clearly in place "An attack on one is an attack on all" or what has recently been added to the rules "An attack on any military facility, oil/gas facility, pipeline or any other commercial entity is an attack on all" we can, as usual, see how the US can carefully manipulate this action into a total NATO involvement or should I say a possible WW3. I must emphasize that any such action by the US and Israel would be totally irresponsible leading to the possible death of millions of people in the region.
So lets again look at this very dangerous and complicated military scenario that is starting to unfold and fully understand who has to be involved in carrying out such an attack and the risks associated with its implementation.
First of all this type of operation is pushing the safety envelope of the Israeli Air Force to its maximum and can only be achieved with the involvement of the US Military. None of the existing IAF aircraft can make such a long range flight without transiting other Islamic States, stopping for fuel or in having in flight refueling provided by the US. The massive US fed munitions stockpile currently in Israel would be utilized by the IAF and they would have to take maximum weapons payload with minimum fuel. This mission would test both aircraft and their crews to the maximum with the main purpose of delivering their deadly payload to target and with no room to detour or carry out a defensive role if attacked by any Iranian aircraft. It would clearly mean that some of the Israeli aircraft would not return as a result of this high risk operation.
The weapons stockpiled by the US in Israel also contain weapons with uranium components such as "Bunker Buster" etc and the combination of such weapons hitting a nuclear facility would lead to terrible consequences in the Middle East. Then we have the question of the MOP which is specifically being tested for use in Iran. This bomb has the potential to not only call catastrophic damage but also has the ability to set off earthquakes in the region. All of the above weapons in that context could be classified as WMD's and are totally indiscriminate in their application and thus are in breach of the Geneva Convention as well as breaching many other international laws. We have heard rumours that such weapons as the MOP and other penetrating type weapons could have triggered the earthquakes in California and also Haiti. Any weapon of this size when it enters the earth crust sends huge shockwaves deep into the earth and should this be in an area of existing rifts the resultant aftermath is self explanatory.
Let's now look at this evil bomb currently under test in the US. The MOP is around 20.5 feet long and a total weight of just under 30,000lbs. The weapon carries 5,300lbs of explosives. It is carried aboard a US Air Force B-2 Bomber and is guided to its target by its onboard global positioning navigation system.
Reader will note that the only aircraft capable of carrying this weapon is the USAF B-2 Stealth Bomber and therefore if Israel attacks Iran (which is what the US wants them to do) then the US will definitely be involved in the delivery of this bomb. The B-2 will be able to carry two MOP's and thus would be a prime target to attack as it approached Iranian airspace. The B-2 would fly at high altitude and release the weapons some distance from target.
It is also my belief that whilst Israel and the US are on a war footing they may also possible carry out strikes on Gaza, Lebanon and Syria during 2010. As with all conflicts the whole purpose is to divide and conquer and Israel is right in the middle of a very unstable area. Should they choose to carry out such action I am sure this could well see the end of Israel.
Part 2 of this series will cover the environmental aspect of such an attack. It will show how the catastrophic fallout will initially consume the entire Middle East from Turkey - Afghanistan - Pakistan - India and from North of the Caspian Sea to the Gulf of Aden. Armenia - Georgia - Azerbaijan - Turkmenistan - Uzbekistan -Tajikistan - Kyrgyzstan - China - Nepal - Syria - Iraq - Kuwait - Saudi Arabia - Bahrain - Lebanon - Israel - Palestine - Jordan - Egypt - Qatar - UAE - Oman - Yemen. Not one country in the Middle East will be spared.
All of this contamination will take place within the first couple of days and within 7-10 days will be around the world.
I ask the UN, UK, EU, Russia, China, Japan and all of the above countries to address this problem with the utmost urgency and ensure that the US and Israel do not attack Iran and that diplomacy without threat is the only way to come to some compromise. Maybe if the US and the rest of the world applied the same pressure on Israel as they do on Iran we may see fair play. Surely if Israel has unlimited and uncontrolled nuclear capabilities they would be considered a threat to the Islamic world so common sense must prevail here. As it stands at the moment it is just pure US/Israeli aggression as we have seen so many times before.
Keep watching this space for the horrific details of Part 2 - Environmental Impact of such action.
Peter Eyre - Middle East Consultant - 8/2/2010